Which NFL Coach Will Be the First One Fired in 2025?
The NFL season is only just underway, and already the clock is ticking for a handful of head coaches. Every year, at least one sideline leader finds himself on the wrong end of the owner’s patience, and the only suspense is who ends up being first. For all the glory of being an NFL head coach, job security has never been part of its selling point.
Recent data highlights just how common the turnover has become. Since 2015, at least five head coaches have lost their jobs by the end of each season, and 32 coaches have already been fired in the 2020s alone. Some franchises, like the Steelers, have remained steady, but others, such as the Raiders and Cardinals, have each fired 14 coaches since 1970. The odds are never in a coach’s favor, and it makes the conversation around 2025 all the more intriguing because several familiar names are now staring down make-or-break years.
The Betting Board Paints a Picture
Some people are often eerily accurate at forecasting which coach is about to be sent packing. Last year, Robert Saleh and Dennis Allen topped some lists and ended up being the first two fired (Saleh in October, Allen in November).
The latest odds for 2025 put Giants head coach Brian Daboll at the front of the line, followed by Mike McDaniel, Shane Steichen, Kevin Stefanski, and Jonathan Gannon. That group doesn’t include Zac Taylor of the Bengals, but he’s still sitting dangerously close to the top.
When both sportsbooks and fans start pointing in the same direction, it’s usually a sign that speculation is becoming reality. Brian Daboll’s name now surfaces in almost every hot-seat debate. It’s a striking shift for a coach who was named Coach of the Year only three seasons ago.
Brian Daboll: Once a Hero, Now the Favorite
Daboll’s story shows how quickly fortunes can change. In 2022, he took a struggling Giants squad to the playoffs and even pulled off a postseason win. Since then, New York has fallen apart with back-to-back losing seasons and a 3-14 finish in 2024.
The Giants face a brutal start to the season. Six of their first eight games are against teams that made the playoffs last year. The only two that aren’t are still tough matchups, since they’re both on the road, in Dallas and New Orleans. In other words, there’s no easy win on the early schedule. If the Giants start 1–7 or 0–8, Daboll’s job might not last past Halloween.
The franchise did give him another chance by bringing in Russell Wilson and drafting Ole Miss rookie Jaxson Dart, but neither option inspires total confidence.
Mike McDaniel: Charm Wearing Thin
Image via Wikimedia Commons/Tennessee Titans
McDaniel entered the league with a reputation as a brilliant offensive mind and quickly became a media favorite. But after a playoff miss in 2024 and growing doubts inside the Dolphins’ locker room, the glow is fading. Miami finished 8-9 last season, and while some of the issues stemmed from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s health, the larger concern is whether the team has plateaued.
There is a consensus that McDaniel is in the danger zone, despite his strong start in Miami. There are predictions that he will be fired if the Dolphins can’t rebound in 2025. In a competitive AFC East with improved rosters in New England and New York, McDaniel doesn’t have much margin for error.
Shane Steichen: Running Out of Time in Indy
When the Colts hired Steichen in 2023, they hoped his offensive background would unlock Anthony Richardson’s potential. Two years later, Richardson hasn’t developed as expected, and Steichen is entering 2025 with Daniel Jones competing for the starting job. That doesn’t inspire confidence for a franchise that has been spinning its wheels in the AFC South.
Indy has gone 17-17 under Steichen while finishing second in the division both years but missing the playoffs each time. Close calls in 2023 and 2024 added pressure, and there have been outright predictions that he will be fired this year. In a division where the Jaguars look poised to rise and the Titans may have found their quarterback in Cam Ward, Steichen could easily find himself left behind.
Zac Taylor: Wasting Burrow’s Prime?
Image via Wikimedia Commons/Erik Drost
Taylor has survived plenty of speculation in Cincinnati, but patience is running thin. The Bengals have endured two straight 9-8 seasons while missing the playoffs despite Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase putting up elite numbers. Taylor’s career record sits below .500 at 46-52-1, which is alarming for a coach with a top-three quarterback.
Not to mention how costly his close losses were in 2024, with seven defeats by a touchdown or less. He may be the league’s hottest seat candidate because of his mismanagement. Some still say he has a fighting chance, but he won’t survive if Cincinnati misses the postseason again.
Kevin Stefanski and Jonathan Gannon: Lurking in the Middle
Image via Wikimedia Commons/Erik Drost
Stefanski has had his share of ups and downs with the Browns, including a Coach of the Year award in 2020, but the team hasn’t been able to deliver consistent results. His job may not be in immediate danger, but there’s clearly some risk.
The Browns expect to contend in the AFC North, and if they fall short, ownership may finally look for a new direction. Gannon, meanwhile, faces an uphill climb in Arizona. The Cardinals are rebuilding and expectations remain modest, but in the NFL, patience only lasts so long. If the roster doesn’t show progress, he could be the scapegoat.
Coaches Rarely Last
The personal side of these firings often gets overlooked. Coaches may earn millions, but they still deal with the emotional weight of being cut loose. Former head coaches like Lane Kiffin and Hue Jackson have shared how disorienting it feels to be suddenly dismissed, describing sleepless nights, family disruptions, and even depression in the aftermath.
At the same time, the business realities of coaching contracts make the firings easier to swallow. Most coaching deals are guaranteed, meaning teams still owe the remaining money if they dismiss a coach without cause.
Legal battles sometimes follow, and the financial side can linger long after the coach has left the building. For wealthy franchises, paying off one contract while negotiating another is simply part of the cost of doing business.
Since the 1970 merger, 264 head coaches have been fired. The rate of firings has climbed steadily, with the 2010s setting a record at 58 dismissals in one decade. Already, the 2020s are keeping pace, and 2025 seems set to add more to that total.