Most Underrated Coaches in NFL History
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You’ve probably heard the adage that good coaches don’t win games, but bad ones lose them, right? Well, that’s true.
According to expected win-loss totals, which are based on the point differential for a given team, even the best coaches aren’t worth as much as one might think over the long haul, when the variables tend to even out. Extreme blowouts can skew the results a bit, but there are more of those in college ball, where conferences and schedules are less balanced.
Besides, Barry Switzer didn’t make the cut. These are the most underrated coaches in NFL history, and W-L expectations were part of the criteria.
Note: Eligibility was restricted to non-Hall of Famers with at least 40 career victories and a .500-or-better win percentage in either the AFL or NFL, or both.
30. John Robinson
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Career: 9 seasons (1983-91)
Teams: Los Angeles Rams (1983-91)
Regular-season record: 75-68 (.524)
Postseason record: 4-6 (.400)
Division titles: 1
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +0.9
Bottom Line: John Robinson
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We enjoyed John Robinson-coached teams whether they be college or pro. They were almost always balanced, competitive and fun to watch.
Their coach could roll with the flow, too. He won with Eric Dickerson on the ground in the early years, Jim Everett through the air in the later ones.
Too bad his teams ran into the '85 Bears and '89 49ers in NFC championship games.
29. Gary Kubiak
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Career: 10 seasons (2006-13, 2015-16)
Teams: Houston Texans (2006-13), Denver Broncos (2015-16)
Regular-season record: 82-75 (.522)
Postseason record: 5-2 (.714)
Division titles: 3
Conference titles: 1
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 1 (2015)
Expected W-L: +1.2
Bottom Line: Gary Kubiak
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As one of the more astute offensive minds of his time, Gary Kubiak guided the Texans to their first two postseason victories.
The quarterback guru won consistently with Matt Schaub behind center. Kubiak then won it all with ancient Peyton Manning at the controls.
It would have been fun to see what Koob could have done with Deshaun Watson in his athletic prime.
28. Bobby Ross
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Career: 9 seasons (1992-2000)
Teams: San Diego Chargers (1992-96), Detroit Lions (1997-2000)
Regular-season record: 74-63 (.540)
Postseason record: 3-5 (.375)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 1
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +1.4
Bottom Line: Bobby Ross
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Bobby Ross doesn’t have numbers that knock your socks off, but they don’t begin to tell the story.
The 4-12 Chargers made a quantum leap to 11-5 and the playoffs in his first go-round. It wouldn't be long before they played in Super Bowl XXIX, the first in franchise history. He did much the same with the Lions, who went from 5-11 to 9-7 and a playoff berth in his debut.
Is it too late to anoint him as the patron saint of hopeless causes?
27. Buddy Parker
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Career: 15 seasons (1949, 1951-64)
Teams: Chicago Cardinals (1949), Detroit Lions (1951-56), Pittsburgh Steelers (1957-64)
Regular-season record: 104-75-9 (.581)
Postseason record: 3-1 (.750)
Division titles: 3
NFL titles: 2 (1952, 1953)
Expected W-L: +2.3
Bottom Line: Buddy Parker
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Let’s cut to the chase. Buddy Parker deserves a closer look for Hall of Fame induction and has for a while now.
His Lions teams were the first to win back-to-back league titles after the AAFC-NFL merger, among the two best of the 1950s decade. He ranks 41st in career wins and 23rd in win percentage among coaches with 100-or-more victories. And he did both in 12- and 14-game schedules.
Hey, the guy also survived 11 seasons with quarterback Bobby Layne. For better or for curse, right?
26. Lou Saban
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Career: 16 seasons (1960-65, 1967-76)
Teams: AFL Boston Patriots (1960-61), AFL Buffalo Bills (1962-65), AFL Denver Broncos (1967-69), Denver Broncos (1970-71), Buffalo Bills (1972-76)
Regular-season record: 95-99-7 (.490)
Postseason record: 2-2 (.500)
Division titles: 3
Conference titles: 0
AFL/NFL-Super Bowl titles: 2 (1964, 1965)
Expected W-L: +2.5
Bottom Line: Lou Saban
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We never got to see the best of Lou Saban after the AFL-NFL shotgun marriage, what with all the overmatched teams that he was stuck with there. If not the greatest coach in AFL history, then the Paul Brown protege is on a very short list of a couple or three candidates.
The job that he did with the second of back-to-back Bills championship teams (1965-66) was among the best ever. He’ll just have to settle for first-ballot membership in our AFL Hall of Fame.
25. Mike Holmgren
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Career: 17 seasons (1992-98, 1999-2008)
Teams: Green Bay Packers (1992-98), Seattle Seahawks (1999-2008)
Regular-season record: 161-111 (.592)
Postseason record: 13-11 (.542)
Division titles: 8
Conference titles: 3
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 1 (1996)
Expected W-L: +3.4
Bottom Line: Mike Holmgren
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It’s a matter of time before Mike Holmgren gets a call from the Hall for induction. For his underappreciated record on the sideline, that is, not his reign of error as a general manager.
The Bill Walsh disciple is one of seven coaches to take multiple franchises to the Super Bowl and one of five to win at least one game in five consecutive postseasons.
24. Buddy Ryan
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Career: 7seasons (1986-90, 1994-95)
Teams: Philadelphia Eagles (1986-90), Arizona Cardinals (1994-95)
Regular-season record: 55-55-1 (.500)
Postseason record: 0-3 (.000)
Division titles: 1
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +1.5
Bottom Line: Buddy Ryan
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You either loved Buddy Ryan the old-school ball coach or couldn’t stand the blustery sonofayouknowwhat. We can probably agree on this much — his guys always played hard, played physical and played defense.
While his Iggles never won a playoff game in his five seasons there, they played in a loaded NFC East that boasted three Super Bowl champs.
His 1994 Cardinals team won eight games without any semblance of an offense whatsoever, one of the better performances of the expansion era.
23. Charley Winner
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Career: 7 seasons (1966-70, 1974-75)
Teams: St. Louis Cardinals (1966-70), New York Jets (1974-75)
Regular-season record: 44-44-5 (.500)
Postseason record: 0-0 (.000)
Division titles: 0
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl: 0
Expected W-L: +1.5
Bottom Line: Charley Winner
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As a longtime Baltimore Colts assistant, Charley Winner was a pioneer of the zone defense. But he didn’t bring quarterback Johnny Unitas with him to St. Loo.
His Cardinals teams never advanced to the playoffs. Still, despite so-so talent, they contended on a regular basis in a competitive division.
22. Bill O’Brien
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Career: 7 seasons (2014-20)
Teams: Houston Texans (2014-20)
Regular-season record: 52-48 (.520)
Postseason record: 2-4 (.333)
Division titles: 4
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +1.65
Bottom Line: Bill O'Brien
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Bill O’Brien’s worst full regular season (4-12 record) came with somebody named Bill O’Brien as general manager. Hmmm.
His best two regular seasons (21-11) came with a Pro Bowl quarterback named Deshaun Watson at the controls. That’s another thing that makes one go hmmm.
In other words, Bill O’Brien with somebody other than Bill O’Brien as GM and a real talent at quarterback was a pret-ty, pret-ty good head coach.
21. Jeff Fisher
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Career: 23 seasons (1994-2016)
Teams: Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans (1994-2011), St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams (2012-16)
Regular-season record: 173-165-1 (.512)
Postseason record: 5-6 (.455)
Division titles: 3
Conference titles: 1
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +5.6
Bottom Line: Jeff Fisher
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If Kevin Dyson hadn’t been stopped mere inches short of the goal line in Super Bowl XXXIV, Jeff Fisher the coach would be viewed in a much different light. The few times that the guy had a lot to work with, he won yugely. Records: 13-3, 13-3 and 12-4.
You can tell more about a coach when he has to make chicken salad out of chicken spit, and he did it about as consistently as anyone in his era.
20. Jason Garrett
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Career: 10 seasons (2010-19)
Teams: Dallas Cowboys (2010)
Regular-season record: 85-67 (.559)
Postseason record: 2-3 (.400)
Division titles: 3
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +2.9
Bottom Line: Jason Garrett
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Half of Cowboys Nation will argue with this selection, no doubt. But is it possible that the 'Boys were overrated for much of Jason Garrett's tenure? Even Alexa says yes.
We count only three teams that had substantial talent (2014, 2016, 2019), and they finished with 12-4, 13-3 and 8-8 records plus two NFC East titles.
Maybe the guy was never mistaken for Tom Landry Jr., but he sure as heck wasn’t Dave Campo, either.
19. Ray Malavasi
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Career: 6 seasons (1966, 1978-82)
Teams: Denver Broncos (1966), Los Angeles Rams (1978-82)
Regular-season record: 44-41
Postseason record: 3-3
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 1
AFL/NFL-Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +1.9
Bottom Line: Ray Malavasi
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Football teams often take on the personality of their head coach. Teams like the ’79 Rams, the massive overachievers who had Raymondo Giuseppi Giovanni Baptiste Malavasi written all over them except on the backs of their uniforms.
They were the product of a defensive mastermind who got the most out of his players. So it shouldn’t have come as a total shock that they gave the mighty Pittsburgh Steelers all they could handle in Super Bowl XIII.
Or that, in their best three-year run (1977-79), his teams had a 15-9 record in games decided by seven points or less.
18. Jim Mora
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Career: 15 seasons (1986-96, 1998-2001)
Teams: New Orleans Saints (1986-96), Indianapolis Colts (1998-2001)
Regular-season record: 125-106 (.541)
Postseason record: 0-6 (.000)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +5.45
Bottom Line: Jim Mora
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Remember that outburst after a galling blowout loss in the 2001 season? "Playoffs? Don't talk about ... Playoffs?! You kidding me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game! Another game!"
Unfortunately, too many remember Mora the lunatic coach more than Mora the highly competent one. Oh, and his 1984 and 1985 Philadelphia-Philadelphia/Baltimore Stars were USFL champions.
Playoffs?! Yeah, no kidding, playoffs!
17. Steve Mariucci
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Career: 9 seasons (1997-2005)
Teams: San Francisco 49ers (1997-2002), Detroit Lions (2003-05)
Regular-season record: 72-67 (.518)
Postseason record: 3-4 (.429)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +3.4
Bottom Line: Steve Mariucci
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The only thing worse than to replace a head coach who won a Super Bowl is to follow two head coaches who won Super Bowls.
Even though Steve Mariucci walked into that impossible situation as the successor to George Seifert, who replaced Bill Walsh, Mooch's teams won at least 10 games in four of six seasons.
But rather than extend their agreement at market value, Niners management canned him with one year left on the contract. Then the team pretty much sucked the next eight seasons.
16. Mike Smith
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Career: 7 seasons (2008-14)
Teams: Atlanta Falcons (2008-14)
Regular-season record: 66-46 (.589)
Postseason record: 1-4 (.200)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +2.8
Bottom Line: Mike Smith
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Mike Smith inherited a 4-12 disaster and turned it into a playoff team in four of the next five seasons. Critics point to his postseason record — except that his team got beat by either the eventual Super Bowl champion (twice) or runner-up each time.
So how does a proven coach with a career 59 percent win percentage (58 percent in games decided by seven points or less), two division titles and one coach of the year award not get an offer to be a head man again?
Something smells here.
15. Dennis Green
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Career: 13 seasons (1984-98, 2001-06)
Teams: Minnesota Vikings (1992-2001), Arizona Cardinals (2004-06)
Regular-season record: 113-94 (.546)
Postseason record: 4-8 (.333)
Division titles: 4
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +5.2
Bottom Line: Dennis Green
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To paraphrase his famous line, Dennis Green is what we thought he was — passionate, emotional, adaptable, successful. He took eight teams to the postseason with seven different quarterbacks.
His Vikings teams consistently met expectations in the regular season. Eight of 10 advanced to the playoffs. If only placekicker Gary Anderson hadn’t missed that 38-yard chip shot by thismuch in the 1998 NFC championship game.
14. John Fox
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Career: 16 seasons (2002-17)
Teams: Carolina Panthers (2002-10), Denver Broncos (2011-14), Chicago Bears (2015-17)
Regular-season record: 133-123 (.520)
Postseason record: 8-7 (.533)
Division titles: 6
Conference titles: 2
Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +6.7
Bottom Line: John Fox
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Funny how some of the best head coaches also are the biggest self-promoters, isn’t it?
Then there was John Fox, who won four of the quietest AFC West championships ever in as many seasons, you almost forgot that he coached, um, that’s them — the Broncos.
Or that his teams won a championship in each conference and 10-or-more games six times.
13. Dan Reeves
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Career: 23 seasons (1981-2003)
Teams: Denver Broncos (1981-92), New York Giants (1993-96), Atlanta Falcons (1997-2003)
Regular-season record: 190-165-2 (.535)
Postseason record: 11-9 (.550)
Division titles: 6
Conference titles: 4
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +11.1
Bottom Line: Dan Reeves
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Give Dan Reeves a playoff-caliber team, and rarely would it disappoint.
Of his 10 best talent-wise, all except one posted at least 10 victories. And the one that didn’t finished with a 9-6-1 record. Moreover, four were conference champions.
Eight of his last 10 teams ranged from below-average to godawful, which makes his overall numbers more impressive.
12. Marty Schottenheimer
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Career: 21 seasons (1984-98, 2001-06)
Teams: Cleveland Browns (1984-88), Kansas City Chiefs (1989-98), Washington Redskins (2001), San Diego Chargers (2002-06)
Regular-season record: 200-126-1 (.613)
Postseason record: 5-13 (.278)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 0
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +10.4
Bottom Line: Marty Schottenheimer
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Look, we're not here to defend Marty Schottenheimer’s brutal postseason record, which speaks for itself. We’ll just say that, given the rather modest talent at his disposal, a lesser coach doesn’t come close to 13 playoff appearances in 21 seasons.
Here’s the list of quarterbacks who got them there: young Bernie Kosar, very old Steve DeBerg, old Dave Kreig, very old Joe Montana, old Steve Bono, untested Elvis Grbac, young Drew Brees and young Philip Rivers.
Uh, detect a trend there?
11. Allie Sherman
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Career: 8 seasons (1961-68)
Teams: New York Giants (1961-68)
Regular-season record: 57-51-4 (.528)
Postseason record: 0-3
Division titles: 3
NFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +4.0
Bottom Line: Allie Sherman
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Sam Huff never forgave Allie Sherman for the way he kicked the proud old player to the curb. The Hall of Fame linebacker wasn’t alone.
But Sherman the coach was better than given credit for in most quarters. Some better luck in the 1963 championship game would have changed a lot of things.
Namely, those "Good-bye, Al-lie!" serenades that filled Yankee Stadium in his final years.
10. Mike Holovak
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Career: 9 seasons (1961-68, 1976)
Teams: Boston Patriots (1961-68), New York Jets (1976)
Regular-season record: 52-47-9 (.525)
Postseason record: 1-1 (.500)
Division title: 1
AFL/Super Bowl title: 0
Expected W-L: +4.0
Bottom Line: Mike Holovak
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News flash: Bill Belichick isn’t the only coach in Patriots history. He isn’t even the only successful one.
Holovak was the guy who kept the franchise alive in its early AFL days despite puny payrolls and pathetic practice conditions. He also was responsible for its first division title and league championship game.
Six decades later, only Belichick has more victories in franchise history.
9. Jim Harbaugh
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Career: 4 seasons (2011-14)
Teams: San Francisco 49ers (2011-14)
Regular-season record: 44-19-1 (.695)
Postseason record: 5-3 (.625)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 1
Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +2.4
Bottom Line: Jim Harbaugh
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Jim Harbaugh burned so many bridges in the Bay Area the Golden Gate had to be put on the most endangered list. Can’t deny his success on the field amid the ruins, though.
His teams won consistently with an elite defense and run-dominated offense that ranked 29th, 23rd, 30th and 30th in pass yardage.
Four words: Alex Smith Colin Kaepernick.
8. Jim Fassel
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Career: 7 seasons (1997-2003)
Teams: New York Giants (1997-2003)
Regular-season record: 58-53-1 (.522)
Postseason record: 2-3 (.400)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 1
Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +4.4
Bottom Line: Jim Fassel
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That record with these quarterback combos — Danny Kannell and Dave Brown, Kerry Collins and Kent Graham?
Yeah, Jim Fassel did pretty good with limited offenses that never ranked higher than 15th in points scored league-wide. That was especially true of the 2000 NFC champs, who had a 6-0 record in games decided by seven points or fewer.
By our count, their overall talent level was no better than fourth in the conference.
7. John Rauch
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Career: 5 seasons (1966-70)
Teams: Oakland Raiders (1966-68), Buffalo Bills (1968–70)
Regular-season record: 40-28-2 (.588)
Postseason records: 2-2 (.500)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 0
AFL/Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +3.1
Bottom Line: John Rauch
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As we know, John Madden guided the Raiduhs to their first-ever Super Bowl appearance. Haha! Gotcha! Actually, it was this one-time Georgia quarterback who got them there.
In three seasons, John Rauch had an impressive 33-8-1 record and two division titles. Ruthless owner Al Davis was such a pain in the rump, though, his coach decided to call it quits.
The guy finished his career in Siberia, where he got the most out of two counterfeit Bills teams.
6. Bum Phillips
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Career: 11 seasons (1975-85)
Teams: Houston Oilers (1975-80), New Orleans Saints (1981-85)
Regular-season record: 82-77 (.516)
Postseason record: 4-3 (.571)
Division titles: 0
Conference titles: 0
Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +7.3
Bottom Line: Bum Phillips
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The Pittsburgh Steelers dynasty wrecked a lot of careers around the league. Mostly, this one.
If not for their AFC Central rivals, we bet Bum and the Oilers would have played in a Super Bowl or two. And the guy with the Stetson hat might have been an H-town lifer and Hall of Fame candidate.
Let’s not forget that he also got a lot out of lesser talented Saints teams.
5. Ron Meyer
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Career: 9 seasons (1982-84, 1986-91)
Teams: New England Patriots (1982-84), Indianapolis Colts (1986-91)
Regular-season record: 54-50 (.519)
Postseason record: 0-2 (.000)
Division titles: 1
Conference titles: 0
Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +4.9
Bottom Line: Ron Meyer
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Ron Meyer should be known as the head coach whose talent-starved teams consistently overachieved, not the one who called a snowplow onto the field in his Patriots debut.
In five full seasons, his teams finished no worse than second on four occasions. The '87 Colts won the AFC East title with Jack Trudeau and Gary Hogeboom at quarterback, for goshsakes.
4. Blanton Collier
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Career: 8 seasons (1963-70),
Teams: Cleveland Browns (1963-70)
Regular-season record: 76-34-2 (.691)
Postseason record: 3-4 (.429)
Division titles: 5
NFL titles: 1
Expected W-L: +6.0
Bottom Line: Blanton Collier
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Blanton Collier coached the last Browns league championship team way, way, way back in the pre-forward pass days. Wait. The forward pass was legal in the 1964 season? Sorry.
His clubs won five division titles and finished second in the other three seasons. We don’t care if he was around for less than a decade.
It’s a felony that this guy doesn’t have a bust in Canton, Ohio, yet.
3. Jim Caldwell
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Career: 7 seasons (2009-11, 2014-17)
Teams: Indianapolis Colts (2009-11), Detroit Lions (2014-17)
Regular-season record: 62-50 (.554)
Postseason record: 2-4 (.333)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 1
Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +6.1
Bottom Line: Jim Caldwell
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Jim Caldwell had a 36-28 record with the Lions. We said the Lions, people. The De-troit Lions!
Forget underrated. We’ve got this guy as the third-greatest coach behind Paul Brown and Vince Lombardi in football history.
2. Mike Martz
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Career: 6 seasons (2000-05)
Teams: St. Louis Rams (2000-05)
Regular-season record: 53-32 (.624)
Postseason record: 3-4 (.429)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 1
Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +5.3
Bottom Line: Mike Martz
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Mike Martz had such renown as The Greatest Show On Turf choreographer it took away from his later success as a head man.
His only team with a plus defense finished with a 14-2 record and played in the Super Bowl. Yet he was fired and replaced by assistant Joe Vitt (then Scott Linehan) five games into the 2015 season.
Dumb-de-dumb-dumb.
1. Chuck Pagano
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Career: 6 seasons (2012-17)
Teams: Indianapolis Colts (2012-17)
Regular-season record: 53-43 (.552)
Postseason records: 3-3 (.500)
Division titles: 2
Conference titles: 0
Super Bowl titles: 0
Expected W-L: +7.7
Bottom Line: Chuck Pagano
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According to the expected W-L metric, Chuck Pagano was worth one win about every 12 1/2 games, the best rate of any coach on this list.
His best work came with talent-challenged 2012 and 2015 teams, which finished 11-5 and 8-8, respectively. The guy was fired after a 4-12 record in the 2017 season, the only sub-.500 one on his resume.
If any coach earned a longer leash, this was the one.