Minnesota Vikings Still Could Make the Good Kind of History

The Vikings have not given up on their playoff dreams after starting the 2023 NFL season winless in September.

The Minnesota Vikings got their first win in the 2023 NFL season on Oct. 1. Although they got off to a slow start in the win column for the year, they are not giving up on their dreams.

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Turn the Page on September

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins

The Vikings went 0-3 in September to open the 2023 NFL season. Bruce Kluckhohn / AP Photo

The Vikings went 0-3 in September after winning 13 games last season and starting 2-1. The Vikings lost their first three games this year by one score while committing an NFL-high nine turnovers.

Their minus-13 total point differential in September was better than 11 NFL teams, including the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders, who had 2-1 records.

Even if regression seems inevitable for the Vikings, they have room to grow in their quest to make the playoffs.

Look on the Bright Side

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson makes a play against the Philadelphia Eagles

Justin Jefferson is a big-time playmaker. Matt Rourke / AP Photo

Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has an NFL-high 543 receiving yards with 33 receptions and three touchdowns through four games. He’s averaging 135.8 yards a game and on pace for more than 2,300 receiving yards, which would demolish Calvin Johnson’s NFL single-season NFL record of 1,964 yards in 2012.

To break Calvin Johnson’s NFL record, he’ll need to hit 109.4 yards a game, according to CBS News. To hit 2,000 yards, Jefferson needs to average 112.1 yards a game over the remaining 13 weeks. And to match Johnson’s per game average, he’ll need 118.9 yards a game.

He also is a leader in keeping life in perspective. “At the end of the day, it’s not going to be perfect every time,” Jefferson said after the team started 0-3. “There are things that you’ve got to go through throughout the season to really tell if you’re going to be a great team or not.”

Minnesota Vikings Regular-Season Wins 2023-24

Over 7.5 Wins +115
Under 7.5 Wins -140

Changing the System

Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith sacks Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young

Vikings safety Harrison Smith still is a difference-maker on defense. Jacob Kupferman / AP Photo

The biggest concern for the Vikings coming into the offseason was on the defensive side of the ball. That has not changed.

Minnesota made strides to fix some of its weaknesses by releasing aging, name-brand veterans like Dalvin Tomlinson, Z’Darius Smith, and Patrick Peterson. The Vikings signed cornerback Byron Murphy, defensive end Dean Lowry, and defensive end Marcus Davenport.

These changes were priced as a downgrade, and that may or may not be the case. Entering October, Davenport missed all but four snaps this season with an ankle injury. But safety Harrison Smith still can be a difference-maker.

Defense on the Clock

Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores replaced Ed Donatell. Bruce Kluckhohn / AP Photo

Brian Flores is Minnesota’s new defensive coordinator. He replaced Ed Donatell, and the Vikings’ defense should be better than last year. But they gave up 259 rushing yards to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 (including 195 yards before first contact) and 445 passing yards to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3 (allowing 41 completions on 48 pass attempts).

Flores’ defense in September was blitzing on 63 percent of dropbacks yet had the NFL’s sixth-lowest pressure rate (32 percent) when blitzing. The Vikings tightened things up in Week 4 to rank No. 19 in scoring (23.8 points per game) and No. 20 in total yards allowed (344.8).

Head coach Kevin O’Connell has confidence Flores and his unit will keep things moving in the right direction on defense.

Mystery Theater

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins throws pass

Can Kirk Cousins lead the Vikings to big wins when it matters most? Abbie Parr / AP Photo

Take out their 13-4 record in 2022, and the Vikings were a mediocre team last year. They finished 29th in net yards per play and 27th in DVOA, while their defense finished 30th in YPA. They finished first in blended fourth-quarter win percentage and fifth best in adjusted games lost due to injury.

Add in that Minnesota lost wide receiver Adam Thielen and running back Dalvin Cook in addition to the aforementioned three defensive starters, and this Vikings team shed salary, experience, and continuity in the offseason.

They still are learning how to put a complete game together.

Northern Exposure

Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell played quarterback at San Diego State and was selected by the New England Patriots in the third round of the 2008 NFL draft. Bruce Kluckhohn / AP Photo

The Vikings have a much more difficult schedule than last season when they finished an unprecedented 11-0 in one-score games. The six departing defensive starters may lead to future success.

That’s why their 1-3 record is a bit of an illusion. The Vikings are not as bad as their record indicates, but they have little room for error the rest of the way.

NFC North 2023-24

Detroit Lions -225
Green Bay Packers +350
Minnesota Vikings +550
Chicago Bears +7000

Do or Die

Minnesota Vikings wide receivers Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson

The Vikings still could have a really good season. Stacy Bengs / AP Photo

The Vikings were one of four winless teams in the NFL in September. Their Week 4 game against the Panthers featured two of the four 0-3 teams in the NFL. The others were the Broncos and Bears, who also faced each other (and the Broncos won).

NFL football is a game of inches, and the Vikings are still focused on this season. So they are not trading Kirk Cousins (who has a full no-trade clause and whose contract will automatically void in March). Linebacker Danielle Hunter (who’s in the final year of his contract and leads the Vikings with five sacks) and Justin Jefferson are not going anywhere either. At least not yet.

The Vikings have to get back above .500 by the end of October, or all bets are off.

Super Bowl 2024

Minnesota Vikings +6000
Green Bay Packers +6000
Pittsburgh Steelers +7000
Atlanta Falcons +7000
Tennessee Titans +7000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7000
New England Patriots +7500
Washington Commanders +8000
Los Angeles Rams +8000
New York Jets +13000
Denver Broncos +13000
Indianapolis Colts +13000
New York Giants +15000
Houston Texans +15000
Las Vegas Raiders +15000
Arizona Cardinals +40000
Chicago Bears +40000
Carolina Panthers +40000

This article originally appeared in the weekly Stadium Talk newsletter with Betting Predators, a sports betting media platform. Subscribe to our newsletter.

More good news: The Betting Predators 2023 NFL Premium Package* is live.

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Vikings Betting Insights

Skol, Vikings. Minnesota fans keep the faith. Jacob Kupferman / AP Photo

There is still a lot of football to be played in 2023. Can Minnesota keep getting better week to week? We’ll see.

The Vikings had a 7-9-1 record against the spread in 2022.
Last season, 11 Vikings games went over the point total.
The Vikings ranked 7th in the NFL in total offense with 361.5 yards per game in 2022 and 31st in total defense with 388.7 yards allowed per contest.
The Vikings scored 424 points (24.9 per game) last season (8th of 32) and allowed 427 points (25.1, 28th of 32).
The Vikings went 8-1 at home and 5-3 on the road.
When underdogs, the Vikings had one victory (1-4) versus a 6-5-1 record when favored.
The Vikings were 8-4 vs. the NFC, including 4-2 in the NFC North.
The Vikings have a 6-8 record as underdogs at home since 2016.

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